Weekly Market Glance & Analysis

[DeeBee]

The US market is on an eight week high. Join em while it last just make sure you are protected at all times. Always have a STOP LOSS it is your insurance in the event the market suddenly correct itself. We will never know when unless you have some inside info of some sort lucky you but its still not a guarantee.

As a responsible individual trader our guide will always be the market. It never lies. Observe and listen to what the market is telling you. How? Start learning price action and candle stick analysis it will forever serve you in this business. In my personal view as long as the 1200 support level on $SPX is being respected I can safely enjoy the north bound ride. A trip below this support will be my signal to take my existing profit and or adjust stop loss. Either way my priority is protecting capital and preserving gains big and small.

Last Wednesday, April 21 I've placed my first probe on PIN (PowerShares India Portfolio ETF) got filled at $22.84 this is a longer term trade with the objective of riding the trend.



Happy weekend!

[Brendan Egan]

It looks like you got a great entry on that $PIN trade. I've actually never heard of $PIN but it could be an interesting place to have a longer term position. Hopefully it works out for you How long are you planning on holding it--until the trend breaks or breaks below support?

[DeeBee]

Here is an update on a position I have since January, my plan is to hold TTM (Tata Motors LTD.) until the trend stops. I'm not sure if the trend has stopped but I'd like to make sure I can get out with a much bigger profit.



I'm confident with my trading plan there was no hesitation whatsoever just flawless execution. Feels really good I will buy TTM again when the time is right.

@ Brendan.
I'd like to hold PIN until I'm out by my stop loss or with my trailing stop. I'm also, planning to add shares along the way. Market was down big today we will see...

[DeeBee]

Quick update, bought shares of KIRK @ $23.20 I consider this a pilot buy. Price have been respecting the upward trend line and the 20 simple moving average is also serving as support.



Good luck!

[Brendan Egan]

I'm confident with my trading plan there was no hesitation whatsoever just flawless execution. Feels really good I will buy TTM again when the time is right.

Congrats Deebee! It is a great feeling when you have a trade go in your favor that was executed completely according to your trading plan

[DeeBee]

I'd like to share with you my mini market charts. I glanced over at these daily after market hours it gives me good idea on where the overall markets are relative to the past and a future forecast of possible scenarios. My views are not nailed in stone it is dynamic and flexible I'm not expecting to be right, I keep an open mind because anything can happen but if I'm right I will try my best to maximize the trade and enjoy riding the trend. if I'm wrong I will immediately correct myself and follow the markets direction no questions ask, no ego to prove being right just quick acceptance of losses. Consider it business expenses. No biggie! Stick with the main objective find trading opportunities and trade that opportunities without fear. How? Quite simple by planning the trade and trading the plan. What's next? Follow your script (plan) and trust no one!

Below are the mini charts of the broad market proxies it indicates the critical areas where the bulls and bears are expected to make their stand. These are the levels to watch near term. Also, pay close attention to GLD, OIH, and the $USD watch the price actions in relation to the broad market they usually give out hints on impending market directions.



I recently met a very successful trader he has been trading the futures and options market since 1995 he re-introduced me to the $VIX, I'm not very familiar with this index but according to him anytime this index hits below the 16 mark the market is becoming complacent and its usually a good time to keep tab of the overall market for any topping formations meaning be ready for a possible change of trend. Interesting...

The SPY is trending up since February 5 and made a pullback on February 25 then on March 1 price have successfully broke above the swing high registered on February 22 that day was the start of this up trend. Recently the market is experiencing hiccups last Tuesday we have a big down bar followed by two days of upward push which have been invalidated yesterday. We are in an area where resistance have been proven strong. Its only expected that market would exhibit much more volatility in these areas. If price breaks below 116 watch the price action carefully for a high possibility of a much deeper retracement.



BTW, my stop loss for KIRK was triggered yesterday. I got out at $22.63 a loss of -2.5% this event is another positive outcome for myself, yes I've lost money with this trade but its minuscule compared to what might have happened if I do not have a protective stop loss. Once again I'd like to reiterate the importance of having a trading plan and your ability to execute the same plan to the fullest win or lose.

Rest well and have nice weekend!

[DeeBee]

The pessimism about Greece debt is bringing fear to the overall market. We are down big in all major indexes. I was stopped out of my PIN position at $22.18 well below my actual stop point of $22.35 I have -3% loss in this long position.

Tighten your stop and start looking into the Inverse ETFs this event can turn out to be the catalyst for the market to correct we never know exactly just my thought but its good to be prepared just in case.

I have small positions on DXD and TYP since January and February will add more if gravity persist.

[DeeBee]

You have probably watched the latest news, read the newspaper, or heard NPR no need for details. Heck, in case you have not the chart below clearly reflect the market chaos this week. In this SPY chart I have marked the possible areas of support and resistance points that may play well in the coming days. I am anticipating a bounce upward which could test the area near 115 level.



I will not trade the counter move. What I'm interested in is how prices will react in that particular level. I'm looking for clues. We knew that market is dynamic and will change anytime so no sweat if this thing does not materialize. The market by then already gave out another hint and as a trader you must have your market perception and a solid plan. If you have these you will have total confidence and good decisions. No fear just flawless execution.

The DXYO (US Dollar) and GLD are both up. I'm leaning to gold long term and have not able to get in so far. I have two positions that I have planned to hold longer these are USO which is down three points from my buy point. I'm buying if price visit at 34.00 to 34.50 and FXA (AU Dollar) I'm very bullish on this currency its time to add more. My DXD and TYP are both looking good specially if the market continue marching down.

Have a nice weekend!

[DeeBee]

This week we have seen the expected retest of 115 level on the SPY Monday, May 10 price strongly gapped up surpassing 115 level on very good trading volume. The price action also retested the 50MA three times in a row and failed as you can see from the chart by Friday we gapped down to close the Monday gap. I have stayed on the sidelines as this kind of violent moves have been proven to be not my cup of tea.

SPY is below 115 have closed the week at 114 level this is not a strong area of support if you revew your longer term chart you'll clearly see what I mean. A likely test of 113 is highly possible and should be watched closely bouncing from this level on a tepid volume is a textbook sign of a weaker market but it could be too obvious so expect some added volatility. Let us be careful.

[DeeBee]

Last week we have discussed what's in my opinion were two important SPY levels the 115 level which have been broken and the 114 level being a weak support from September last year. We have also anticipated the likely test of 115 as resistance and this week the market did that on so-so volume tried for two days before breaking down hitting our 109 target with such momentum that price moved past below 106 before retracing back to close the week within our target zone.

The Friday price action has some volume support but it is happening within the context of a strong down momentum as proven by two gap downs in the last two weeks. I'm leaning into the resume of the down move but I think market may try to fill the gap by testing 111-112 area. If the bears can push below the hot zone then 100 is an easy reach.

By the way, if you are to plot the Fibs on the SPY weekly chart from March 02 2009 lows of 65.31 and then connect to the recent highs made last April 26, 2010 at 122.12 the 100 level is within the 38 Fibs. Plenty of traders are looking at Fibs and 38.2% is a famous reversal zone we should be tightening our stop or taking profit as the percentage of a bounce is very high.



Errata: Typo error from last week's post found on second paragraph, the second sentence should read "A likely test of 115 not 113..."

Disclaimer: This journal contains my own personal views and opinions. I can be wrong please do your own research/analysis. I'm posting here for my own trading style and for educational purposes only.